Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
Landfall between
19 Jan 2021 18:00 - 20 Jan 2021 06:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 550000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar
Green 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Green 4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Orange 5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 130 5.7 million 770 thousand Mozambique
Orange 6 19 Jan 2021 18:00 148 12.2 million 2.3 million Mozambique
Orange 7 20 Jan 2021 06:00 148 36.9 million 550 thousand Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
GREEN
2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 56.6
GREEN
4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 250000 people -14.1, 53
GREEN
5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1000000 people -14.5, 51.7
GREEN
6 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.4 million people -15.3, 50.1 Madagascar
GREEN
7 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2.2 million people -15.6, 48 Madagascar
GREEN
7 20 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.4, 45.6 Madagascar
GREEN
7 21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.4, 43.6
GREEN
7 21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 320000 people -18.3, 41.6
GREEN
7 22 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 <1000 people 2.1 million people -19.2, 39.7
ORANGE
7 23 Jan 2021 06:00 Category 1 148 550000 people 4.3 million people -21.4, 36.2
ORANGE
7 24 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 31.2 million people -23.7, 33.4 Mozambique
GREEN
7 25 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -24.5, 30.8 South Africa
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country
Inhambane Mozambique
Gaza Mozambique

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Bazaruto Island Mozambique
Vilanculas Mozambique

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Mahoa, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (271 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 20 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Mahoa Mozambique  1.0
23 Jan 2021 16:00 China Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.6
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Amado Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Baly Madagascar  0.5
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Afo Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 21:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 21:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Beira Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Beula Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Catine Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
24 Jan 2021 00:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.3
24 Jan 2021 00:00 Banga Mozambique  0.3
24 Jan 2021 00:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.3
24 Jan 2021 00:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 09:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 23:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 09:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 05:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 11:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 05:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1